Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Arnold and Samuels 2011

Jason Ross Arnold and and David J. Samuels 2011, "Evidence from Public Opinion" (31-51)

in  Levitsky, Steven, and Kenneth M. Roberts. 2011. The resurgence of the Latin American left. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

  • Based on Latinobarimetro survey
  • Big conclusions:
    • No mass-level shift to the left of voters in LA (32)
    • citizens see current wealth distribution as a problem, but also don't seem to be more unhappy with it than they ever have been before
    • unhappy with performance of democracy, but not democracy itself (32-33)
    • left vote is strongly correlated with anti-American sentiment (33)
  • No region-wide leftward trend (35)
    • voters did increasingly identify as left in Chile, El Salvador, Hoduras, Nicaragua, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela
  • Even after left came to power, roughly 75% of respondents in the region believe distribution of wealth was unfair (36-37)
  • Democracy:
    • everyone unhappy with performance of democracy
      • though even that score has decreased slightly, it's still high (38)
      • mostly people are unhappy with the institutions as they exist (40)
    • generally LAs Ok with democracy as a form of government, but this is often based on incumbent performance (43)
    • most Latin Americans seem tot define democracy along liberal-type lines, not populist lines (Mexico is a notable exception) (45)
  • Conclusion: Left turn is a bit of a misnomer, as because surveys do not show mass ideological shifts to the left among LA voters

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