Levitsky and Murillo 2003

Levitsky, Steven, and Maria Victoria Murillo. 2003. "Argentina Weathers the Storm". Journal of Democracy. 14 (4): 152-166.

• in 1990s Argentina had been hailed as a case of successful market reform (152)
• Then 2001
• Election of Nestór Kirchner demonstrated the robustness of Argentina’s core democratic institutions and the remarkable strength of Peronism (153)
• 2001 crisis was rooted in Menem legacies
• convertibility system left government without the tools to respond to economic shocks
• public debt ballooned due to the enormous cost of privatizing the social security system
• widespread social exclusion
• unemployment rate soared to 18.6% in 1995 and stayed in double digits the rest of the decade
• marked decline of public trust in politicians and political institutions
• due to lack of transparency and corruption scandals under Menem
• After being elected in 1999, de la Rúa embroiled in bribery scandal almost immediately (154)
• tried to buy off Senators
• eroded his credibility
• external shocks: 1997 Asian crisis, strengthening US dollar, Brazilian devaluation in 1999
• de La Rúa was unwilling to end the popular convertibility system
• tried austerity instead, sent country deeper into recession
• US unwilling to bailout Argentina
• Looting, highway blockages, middle-class protesters (155)
• response was violent repression
• de la Rúa driven out
• Saá, from PJ, elected by Congress, defaults on debt, left within a week
• Piquteros, Que se vayan todos
• 2002 Duhalde chosen by Congress
• first ended convertibility system
• caused massive inflation, economy goes from recession to depression
• possibility of the rise of an anti-establishment outsider?!
• Economy began to improve in late 2002, political system in disarray (156)
• PJ divided as well, Duhalde vs. Menem
• poorly institutionalized, no nomination system, naked political fight, results in ...
• THREE PJ candidates for President in 2003!
• Menem
• Kirchner
• Saá
• Election went smoothly, turnout was 78% (157)
• PJ gets top two winners (Menem and Kirchner), and combined 61% of vote (158)
• election polarized around Menem
• Kirchner slides through because of his relative anonymity
• Duhalde support Kirchner, delivered the BA vote
• UCR suffered devastating defeat (159)
• establishment candidates carried the day, no outsiders!
• In second round of election, surveys suggested Menem would get crushed, second round would be a referendum on Menemism, and no one wanted a return to the past
• PJ survived where parties collapsed in Peru and Venezuela (160)
• Menem and Duhalde had been able to keep some governability, while UCR presidents had presided over economic collapse
• Why not que se vayan todos? (161)
• continuing strength of local political machines
• Duhalde had relative success
• international regime had almost nothing to do with helping Argentina
• Military did not intervene, nor did presidents engage in power grab (162)
• BUT 2001-2 still weakened democratic institutions
• Supreme Court justices still messed with up through 1999
• institutions still weak
• BUT the institutions survived, even as regimes did not
• still had elections (163)
• major fragmentation of non-PJ political system
• PJ has already had a virtual lock on the Senate and governorships
• the electoral value of Peronism remains high (164)
• but the Pj is still not a coherent party
• Kirchner has to make a series on potentially unpopular policy moves (165)
• especially re: public debt, but other things as well
• Kirchner will also have to deal with strong PJ governors, continuing power of Duhalde